8 2022 Newsletter IEAB Task 37
Reports, Statistics and Analysis
Topics:
- Sustainable Biomass availability in the EU to 2050
- Energy Vision report analyzes non-petroleum fuel options for waste and recycling fleets
- IRENA analysis shows hydrogen could disrupt global trade and bilateral energy relations
- Record-braking year for biomethane
- Rapid growth of biomethane in European transport
- New record for biogas in the Danish gas grid by 2021
- Significant growth of biomethane in France by 2021
- Analysis from Global Industry Analysts Reveals Steady Growth for Natural Gas Vehicles
- Renewable Natural Gas motor fuel continues growth in America
- The Easiest and Hardest Commercial Vehicles to Decarbonize
- The path to climate-neutral road traffic
- Cultivation of renewable raw materials in Germany remains constant
Sustainable Biomass availability in the EU to 2050
The aim of the report of C. Panoutsou and K. Maniatis is to provide an estimation of the sustainable biomass availability in the European Union and the UK by 2030 and 2050 and to provide an evaluation of the advanced biofuel potential. It includes domestic feedstocks of agricultural, forest and waste origin included in Annex IX of RED II (Part A and B). A short overview of the potential for imports and algae, based on other studies has been included as an Annex. Food and feed crops, and other sustainable feedstocks accepted by RED but not included in Annex IX, are not included in this study. The study analyses firstly the sustainable biomass availability for all markets and then estimates the amount that can be available for bioenergy after excluding the known demand from non-energy sectors. Following, the study presents the status of the various technologies and their maturity for market deployment. The results show that sustainable biomass for all markets available in 2030 is between 0.98 to 1.2 billion dry tonnes (392 to 498 Mtoe) and 1 to 1.3 billion tonnes (408 to 533 Mtoe) in 2050. From this, the estimated amount for bioenergy ranges from 520- 860 million dry tonnes (208-344 Mtoe) in 2030 and 539 -915 million dry tonnes (215-366 Mtoe) in 2050. The total estimated net biomass that can be used for biofuel production, including imports, has been estimated at 126-262 Mtoe for 2030 and 101 – 252 Mtoe for 2050.
Energy Vision report analyzes non-petroleum fuel options for waste and recycling fleets
The sustainable energy NGO Energy Vision published “The Refuse Revolution”, its report on alternativefuels and new vehicle technologies for waste and recycling collection truck fleets. It assesses biodieseland renewable diesel, fossil and renewable natural gas, hybrid technologies, battery electric vehiclestask37.ieabioenergy.com/task37.ieabioenergy.com(BEVs), DME, and hydrogen for cost, performance, and climate and health impacts. Trucks with naturalgas engines powered by renewable natural gas (RNG) achieve the greatest benefits at the lowest cost,the report finds. RNG trucks rated highest for performance, cost, and cutting lifecycle GHG emissionsand health-damaging pollutants. Since RNG is made from captured methane biogases emitted bydecomposing organic wastes, scaling up its production could cut overall U.S. methane emissions by15%. This would take the U.S. halfway to the global goal of reducing methane emissions 30% by 2030,deemed essential by UN and IPCC scientists in order to avoid catastrophic climate change beyond 1.5degrees centigrade. The report compares “lifecycle” GHG emissions of each option, covering fuelproduction, transport and use. It finds that BEV trucks’ claim to be zero-emissions isn’t accurate. Theheavy weight of their batteries causes them to stir up road dust and increases tire wear, generatingparticulate pollution that may be greater than that of diesel trucks. BEVs also have considerablelifecycle GHG emissions, since they charge their batteries on a 58% fossil fuel-powered electric grid.
IRENA analysis shows hydrogen could disrupt global trade and bilateral energy relations
In United Arab Emirates, rapid growth of the global hydrogen economy can bring significant geoeconomic and geopolitical shifts giving rise to a wave of new interdependencies, according to newanalysis by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). “Geopolitics of the EnergyTransformation: The Hydrogen Factor” sees hydrogen changing the geography of energy trade andregionalizing energy relations, hinting at the emergence of new centers of geopolitical influence built onthe production and use of hydrogen, as traditional oil and gas trade declines. Driven by the climateurgency and countries’ commitments to net zero, IRENA estimates hydrogen to cover up to 12 per centof global energy use by 2050. IRENA estimates that over 30 per cent of hydrogen could be traded acrossborders by 2050, a higher share than natural gas today. Countries that have not traditionally tradedenergy are establishing bilateral energy relations around hydrogen. As more players and new classes ofnet importers and exporters emerge on the world stage, hydrogen trade is unlikely to becomeweaponized and cartelized, in contrast to the geopolitical influence of oil and gas.
Record-braking year for biomethane
The biomethane map 2021 published by EBA and GIE shows that the biomethane industry smashed allrecords in 2021: Europe has now 1,023 upgrading plants. EBA estimates that 87% of the biomethaneplants active in Europe today are connected to the gas grid. To ensure that biomethane will play anincreasingly important role as a renewable fuel, an efficient trade of biomethane across Europe shouldbe established. Today, Europe has around 20,000 biogas and biomethane plants in operation. It isexpected that sustainable biomethane will cover up to 30-40% of the EU gas consumption expected for2050, with an estimated production of at least 1,000 TWh. Biomethane plants are exponentiallygrowing across Europe: The Biomethane Map shows that almost 300 new units started operation in thepast one and a half years. Europe has today 40% more biomethane plants compared to the previousedition released in 2020. France, Italy, and Denmark are the countries with the largest increase on thenumber of biomethane plants. No less than 91 new units began operation in France in 2020 and 123plants started operation between January and October 2021. After France, the countries which saw thebiggest growth in their number of biomethane plants are Italy (+11 plants in 2020) and Denmark (+ 10plants in 2020).
Rapid growth of biomethane in European transport
The Natural & Bio Gas Vehicle Association (NGVA Europe) has released new data in 2022, proving rapidgrowth of biomethane as transport fuel in Europe. With more than a quarter of the gas used in roadtransport being renewable, an overwhelming amount of Europe’s 3,810 CNG stations alreadysuccessfully delivered biomethane to European consumers. The leading countries offering biomethaneas a transport fuel were Denmark and Sweden, supplying shares of 100% and 95% biomethane at their17 and 205 CNG stations respectively by the end of 2020. They are followed by the Netherlands with90% (185 CNG stations), the United Kingdom with 80% (10 CNG stations), and Norway with 63% (31CNG stations), while Germany’s 821 CNG stations already delivered 60% biomethane. Some countries’biomethane share made a huge leap forward: Italy’s 1,392 stations already delivered 19% biomethanein 2020 up from 9%. Today in 2022, European gas refueling infrastructure network consists of morethan 4,110 CNG and 499 LNG stations for which a significantly higher amount of biomethane is alreadyavailable. This includes vast amounts of Bio-LNG. The European Commission estimates that there will beat least 44 bcm/467 TWh of biogas and biomethane available in 2030, and Gas for Climate estimates 95bcm/1.020 TWh for 2050. From today’s production of 22 TWh renewable gas, Europe has a potential of1,200 TWh. Out of this, 117 TWh renewable gas will be distributed as transport fuel (bioCNG andbioLNG), which represents 40% of the overall fleet consumption in 2030.
New record for biogas in the Danish gas grid by 2021
Biogas facilities in Denmark have never before supplied as much biogas to the Danish gas system thanthey did in 2021. At the end of 2021, biogas injected into the gas system thus reached a levelcorresponding to just under 25%. By comparison, this level was around 21% at the end of 2020. Since2013, 51 biogas facilities have been connected to the gas system. One facility is connected directly tothe transmission system at Bevtoft, while the other facilities are connected to the distribution systemthroughout Denmark. Analysis assumptions prepared in 2021 expect this growth to continue so thatbiogas will be able to cover 75% of Danish gas consumption in 2030. In 2034, biogas production isexpected to be able to fully meet Danish gas demand on an annual basis.
Significant growth of biomethane in France by 2021
With 4.3 TWh of biomethane injected into the networks in 2021, the biomethane sector continues tobreak through in France. In the field of mobility, RNG now represents nearly 20% of the gas consumed.Despite the difficulties linked to the pandemic, the biomethane sector continues to develop in France.According to data published by GRTgaz, France had 365 sites injecting into the French gas networks atthe end of 2021. Biomethane injections represented 4.3 TWh in 2021, compared to 2.2 TWh in 2020.With an additional 19 TWh of projects under development, methanization is more dynamic than thetrajectory envisaged in the 2019-2023 Multiannual Energy Program, which set a target of 6 TWh in2023. GRTgaz estimates that renewable and low-carbon gas production will reach 320 TWh by 2050(excluding hydrogen). In terms of uses, GRTgaz confirms the momentum of gas for heavy mobility.According to data provided by the network operator, CNG accounted for almost one in tworegistrations in the bus market in 2021. In total, France now has more than 15,000 heavy vehiclesrunning on natural gas. That’s three times more than five years ago.With the launch of a new support system through a call for tenders, the government intends toaccelerate the development of the biomethane sector by releasing 1.6 TWh of additional productioncapacity in three periods. The first one runs until December 2022 and will allow the contracting of acumulative production capacity of 500 GWh/year. With submission deadlines set for June andDecember 2023, the other two periods will allow for the release of 550 GWh/year of additionalcapacity. For each period, it is planned to reserve a volume of 200 GWh/year as a priority for projectswith a projected annual production of less than 50 GWh/year.
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Analysis from Global Industry Analysts Reveals Steady Growth for Natural Gas VehiclesGlobal Industry Analysts Inc. (GIA), released its report titled “Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) – GlobalMarket Trajectory & Analytics”. Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for NGVs estimated at 25.2million units in the year 2022, is projected to reach a revised size of 32.5 million units by 2026. LightDuty Vehicles, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is projected to record a 6.1% compoundannual growth rate (CAGR) and reach 31.9 million units by the end of the analysis period. After athorough analysis of the business implications of the pandemic and its induced economic crisis, growthin the Medium & Heavy Duty Trucks segment is readjusted to a revised 5.3% CAGR for the next 7-yearperiod. The U.S. market is estimated at 172,200 units in 2022, while China is forecast to reach 7,400units by 2026 trailing a CAGR of 6.6% over the analysis period. Among the other noteworthy geographicmarkets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at 4.3% and 4.8% respectively over the analysisperiod. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 5.1% CAGR. In the global Medium& Heavy Duty Buses segment, USA, Canada, Japan, China and Europe will drive the 4.3% CAGRestimated for this segment. These regional markets accounting for a combined market size of 337,400units will reach a projected size of 452,900 units by the close of the analysis period. China will remainamong the fastest growing in this cluster of regional markets. Led by countries such as Australia, India,and South Korea, the market in Asia-Pacific is forecast to reach 400,300 units by the year 2026, whileLatin America will expand at a 4.4% CAGR through the analysis period.
Renewable Natural Gas motor fuel continues growth in America
Natural Gas Vehicles for America (NGVAmerica) and Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas (RNGCoalition) announced that 64 percent of all on-road fuel used in natural gas vehicles in calendar year2021 was renewable natural gas (RNG). Captured above ground from organic material in agricultural,wastewater, landfill, or food waste, RNG can produce carbon-negative results when fueling on-roadvehicles like short- and long-haul trucks, transit buses, and refuse and recycling collection vehicles.California Air Resources Board data confirms that the annual average carbon intensity (CI) value ofCalifornia’s bio-CNG vehicle fuel portfolio in its Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program was carbonnegative and below zero at -44.41 gCO2e/MJ for calendar year 2021. RNG use as a transportation fuelgrew 13 percent over 2020 volumes, up 234 percent from 2017 levels. NGVAmerica and RNG Coalitionreport that in 2021 a total of 610 million gallons (GGE) of natural gas were used as motor fuel. Of that,390 million gallons (GGE) or 1.5 Mia liters were from renewable sources. With current savings of up to$2.60/gallon or more over diesel, fleets can slash annual fueling costs while virtually eliminating NOxand particulate matter emissions and decarbonizing their freighting operations. RNG use as a motorfuel in 2021 displaced 3.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
The Easiest and Hardest Commercial Vehicles to Decarbonize
To date, the primary approach for decreasing emissions has been through regulations on vehicle andfuel suppliers to improve vehicle energy efficiency and fuel carbon intensity, respectively. Theseregulations have mostly been developed for light-duty vehicle markets and technologies. However, thesuccess of these policies in the light-duty vehicle market is prompting replication for the medium- andheavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) market. To inform the broad community of stakeholders on the nuances ofMHDV decarbonization, the Fuels Institute collaborated with Guidehouse Insights to highlight thecomplexity of the market. To do so, Guidehouse Insights identified the top five and bottom fiveapplications for MHDV decarbonization. The results of the analysis indicate that the top five MHDVapplications affect nearly 50% of the market and are responsible for 42% of emissions. Meanwhile thebottom five affect 20% of the market but are responsible for 45% of emissions.
The path to climate-neutral road traffic
Road transport is responsible for around 30% of Swiss greenhouse gas emissions. Researchersfrom Empa, Paul Scherrer Institute, ETH Zurich and EPFL Lausanne jointly investigated the potentials ofelectricity-based mobility with regard to reducing the impact on the climate in the context of anevolving energy system. According to the researchers, the switch from fossil fuels to renewableelectricity is not enough on its own. The experts also assessed how gas vehicles perform compared tofuel cell and electric vehicles in the scenarios – with exciting results. The researchers calculated twelvedifferent scenarios. The results show that for eight out of the 12 simulations, the differences inCO2 reduction between electric and hydrogen cars and also vehicles powered by synthetic fuels aresmall. This is because efficiency and flexibility outweigh each other in such cases. In addition to theenergy calculations, the researchers also examined the effects of charging electric vehicles on the localelectricity grid. After all, a single electric car that is charged at a plug socket all night corresponds toaround four electric stoves that run at full power for six hours. And only intelligent charging systemsthat adapt the charging power of the vehicles to the currently available grid capacity will prevent theelectricity grids from becoming overloaded and, in extreme cases, from causing blackouts. Vehiclespowered by biogas or synthetic gas are another option for sustainably reducing CO2 emissions in thetransport sector, which is unfortunately often forgotten due to the current framework conditions andthe so-called tail-pipe calculation of CO2 emissions. Finally, an electric car powered by the EU’selectricity mix still emits around 87 grams of CO2 per kilometer in a well-to-wheel balance. That’s animpressive difference to the official climate calculation with Nil emission. An electric vehicle is only asensible alternative if it is charged with renewable electricity. In this case, the electro-friendly ForumElectromobility predicted CO2 emissions of just 5 grams in 2019. A study of biogas-fueled CNG vehiclesby the consulting company PA Consulting Group came up with exactly the same number. As a result,there is currently virtually no way around trucks powered by CNG or LNG, especially in HD transport.
Cultivation of renewable raw materials in Germany remains constant
The 2021 data of the German Agency for Renewable Resources (FNR) show that the area undercultivation for renewable raw materials (Nawaro) in Germany was estimated at 2.63 million hectares,thus remaining at a largely constant level. Out of that, the surface taken up by energy crop productionfor biogas plants covered the major share with 1.57 million hectares. Corn accounts for 56 percent ofthis area, followed by cereals, grasses and sugar beets. As an alternative biogas energy crop, silphia(Silphium perfoliatum) has increased significantly in cultivation from 3,500 to around 10,000 hectares.After a low in 2020, the area of canola for material and energy uses rose again to just under 600,000hectares, but it is still a long way from the large area planted in earlier years. Areas for solid fuels fromfields, such as miscanthus or fast-growing tree species, and for starch-, sugar-, oil- or active ingredientproducing plants for technical purposes and phytopharmaceuticals remained largely stable. Plant fibersfor material use are a small but steadily growing cultivation niche, climbing in size from just under 1,500hectares in 2015 to around 6,500 hectares in 2021. Detailed figures on the cultivation, use and prices ofNawaro can now be found on the FNR’s new statistics portal.
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